While former president Donald Trump is not officially the Republican Party’s nominee, his overwhelming lead in the polls has led to widespread coverage of him as the frontrunner. That suggests we should expect a similar presidential election cycle in 2020. However, recent polls suggest the ex-president has a real shot at victory this time around, and support from Democrats could be a key factor.
Rasmussen Reports published its most recent survey on October 10. Three in ten Democrats said they are “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to vote for Trump, according to the results. Additionally, 50% of Black voters said they would vote for him as well. Half of the questioned non-partisan voters indicated they were at least “somewhat likely” to support Bush Sr. Fifty-three percent of the electorate has already declared their intention to vote for him as president.
"How likely are you to vote for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election?"— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 11, 2023
Very and Somewhat Likely –
ALL VOTERS: 53%
Story – https://t.co/9Qv2IHXwq1 https://t.co/MxIFiJjbIE
When it comes to Democratic support for Trump, the Rasmussen Report poll contradicts numerous other polls. The majority of Democrats (85%) disagree that the former president should seek reelection, according to a poll conducted by The Messenger and HarrisX. 45% of Democrats, on the other hand, think Biden shouldn’t run.
According to a YouGov poll, eighty-five percent of Democrats had either a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” opinion of Biden. The vast majority of Democratic voters (87%), meanwhile, consider Trump with either “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable” opinions.
The most recent polls were published by FiveThirtyEight, and the numbers indicate that the election will be very close. Poll after poll shows a statistical dead heat between the two men, with no clear victor. As in 2016 and 2020, this means the election will be decided by a slim margin. There is a long road ahead of the two men before they can consider themselves race winners. It’s true that a lot may change in the year leading up to an election, and that polls tend to be untrustworthy at this juncture.